I know, I know… you’ve heard already. This isn’t an “in case you didn’t see” post… everybody saw. The Pats lost. It’s true. The Patriots lost for the first time in 22 regular season games… and to none other than the Miami Dolphins. But there are three things that need to be said in breaking this down.

First, look back at it one more time and there’s no denying it: Matt Cassel is not to blame here. I’m sorry, but he’s not. Does that mean that Tom Brady would have lost, too? No, certainly not. Tom Brady may very well have done what we all expect Tom Brady to do every week.  But that does not mean that Matt Cassel blew this game. He didn’t. He was no Pro-Bowler, but he was no punk, either. Cassel was responsible for just one turnover and completed more than 60% of his passes (even if just for 160 yards). The problem on that offense was in front of Cassel.

That’s #2. If you want to blame someone on this offense, blame that offensive line. The same offensive line that gives Tom Brady minutes on end to wander around in a pocket the size of the Bill Belichick’s ego simply fell apart against the Dolphins. The Dolphins managed four sacks, three by Joey Porter alone who outright told the Patriots he was coming after Cassel. And more, that puny offensive line was only able to block enough to get the Patriots 79 yards rushing (60 if you remove Wes Welker’s run). No one would ever call the Patriots at running team. And no one would expect great rushing numbers when a team goes down by 20 points in the first half (the Pats only managed 20 total rushes), but that’s not an excuse. When the passing game isn’t working, and when the offensive line cannot help the quarterback, it’s time to run the ball to establish something. The Pats never got there. They never even got close. This line failed on all fronts.

Third, the game’s biggest failure is the New England defense. A defense that gave up 461 total yards. A defense that allowed Chad Pennington to complete 85% of his passes without recording a single sack. And a defense that allowed Ronnie Brown to score five touchdowns. Go back and watch the film - you can be sure to see it on ESPN 20 times in the next 5 days - the Dolphins did most of their damage running their offense in a gadget scheme: Ronnie Brown at QB (shotgun), Chad Pennington out wide, and Ricky Williams wide or at TE. The Dolphins scored over and over again using this slick formation, and the Patriots looked baffled every time they saw it. Perhaps even worse for the Patriots reputation, more than once Ronnie Brown simply ran a QB-draw from that shotgun position. He took the ball from his center, he looked at the defensive line, and he ran past them. Nothing fancy. Nothing tricky. Just a plain, old run from a funny formation. And the Pats had no answer.

I’ve heard a few analysts and others go off about how the offense is more to blame… sounding like old Ravens critics, “the defense can’t be on the field all game long!” But let’s just squash that outright. Look at time of possession in this game: 32:33 for the Fish to 27:27 for the Pats. Hardly lopsided. In fact, the average Dolphins scoring drive lasted just 4 minutes, and they never held the ball for more than 7 minutes. By comparison, the Ravens held the ball for more than 37 minutes in their victory today against the Browns, including a fourth quarter drive lasting well over 7 minutes. So let’s not say that this defense was just too worn down to have a shot. The Pats couldn’t score, but their defense didn’t help the cause.

Now here’s where we get to predictions - or perhaps forecasts is a better term. Like it or not (and trust me, I don’t like it), the offense is going to take the fall for this loss. Matt Cassel will be the scapegoat. Randy Moss will make sure of it. Bill Belichick will make sure of it. And the fans, coming off a season with a record-setting offense, certainly won’t stand for such failures. And the solution will come this week, perhaps next, in the form of a new starting quarterback. My bet? Jeff Garcia. Recently benched in Tampa Bay, Garcia thinks he should still be the starter. Look at his number from last season and his brief time in Philadelphia, and you might just agree with him. In 21 games in 2006 and 2007, Garcia’s passer rating averaged nearly 100 (95). He clearly has the tools to be a starting quarterback. And in both Philly and Tampa, he was working without the kind of tools that Bill Belichick can offer.

The biggest question is what will Garcia cost? Tampa’s price can’t be too high, but New England should pay up if they want to silence the Cassel Controversey talks early.

In case you’re not paying attention… Monday Night Football tonight is showcasing why the Ravens have what may be the most demanding non-division schedule in the league. The Ravens get to go up against the NFC and AFC East divisions this year.

In the NFC, that means playing the Eagles and Redskins in Baltimore, and then playing the Giants and Cowboys on the road. And just in case you missed it, the Giants, Eagles and Cowboys have presently accounted for nearly 120 points this week alone. At present, they are 119. But there’s sill a few minutes left in the Cowboys-Eagles match-up.

And in case you think these teams are defensively lame, you’ll note that the Giants - who are apparently decimated on their defensive line thanks to the loss of Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora - picked up 6 sacks this week against the Rams. In Week One, the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles combined to outscore their opponents 82-20.

Think about that. This Ravens defense, as stout as it may be, has to go up against three of the league’s best offenses. All thanks to a schedule putting them against the league’s toughest division.

And that’s not even touching on the fact that the Ravens also get to play the ever-troublesome Colts and Peyton Manning. They might be struggling now, but they’ll still have Manning-Addai-Wayne-Harrison when we head to Indianapolis in four weeks.

Monday Night Football… even when the Ravens aren’t playing, reminding Baltimore why it’s never easy.

Without the Ravens playing this weekend, I’ve had plenty of time to give extra attention to every other team and every other game in the league so far this week. I was even able to sit down and watch the entirety (though, I kind of regret it) of the pre-game show to Sunday Night Football.

To anyone who’s up with what’s going on in the league today, the day’s biggest play and one of the biggest stories is the Chargers last-minute loss to the Broncos. The game is notable for a number of reasons… a clash of the AFC West’s best teams, a change for the Chargers to rebound from a devestating last minute loss to the Panthers last week, and now it’s notable for how it ended.

Not only did the game end with Mike Shanahan being Mike Shanahan and going for the win on a 2 point conversion, instead of forcing OT with an extra point… but it ended with great controversey because two plays before that conversion attempt, the Chargers apparently forced and recovered a fumble from the Broncos. The play was ruled an incomplete pass attempt however and replay rules failed to allow the officials to remedy the situation. So rather than the Chargers holding the ball until the bitter end, the Broncos were allowed to meander into the endzone a play later. You can see more about the game here.

However, in all the discussion of tonight’s game another discussion is slowly appearing. Two months ago, ESPN published two articles about officiating in the NFL. In one, NFL coaches vote on which officials they believe are best and worst at their jobs. In the other, Mike Sando discusses how the league addresses conflict between teams and referees.

Somehow both of these stories flew under the radar in the hype of preseason football and training camps. But both deserve some serious discussion. On the lighter side of things, it’s always fun to bash officials. In ESPN’s poll, officials Ed Hochuli and Mike Carey received the most votes for “best official.” (WHAT?!) Both men also received the most votes for worst official, aside from the now-retired Gerald Austin. (More like it…). Regardless, it’s an interesting peak into how coaches view officiating crews.

The second article, however, is the one that I believe really deserves some serious discussion. In it, Mike Sando and his ESPN Research team assert that certain referees are assigned so that they strategically avoid calling the games of certain teams and/or coaches.  The longest streak Sando found regarded, surprise!, Ed Hochuli and the Denver Broncos. “[Hochuli] has worked at least three games involving every team but Denver — and an average of more than seven for every other team — since the start of the 2001 season.”

In all, Sando asserts that there are 15 more seemingly “special arrangements” in which officials avoid working games involving one team or another. The reasons range from living too close to a certain team (Jeff Triplette to the Panthers) to particularly bad calls or bad games in years past.  And to be perfectly honest, I am not entirely sure that these arrangements are particularly bad.

My biggest query, though, is why should the rest of the league have to put up with Hochuli’s awful officiating while Tampa Bay and Denver get to avoid him or seasons on end?

Additionally, I am most surprised to learn that there appear to be no special arrangements yet made involving the Ravens. Between Brian Billick’s fondness for filing greivances with the league and mocking officials, and this team’s remarkable ability to find itself involved in controversey, how could we not have at least one grudge worth holding? Most specifically, I’m sure this team would love to avoid Mike Carey and his crew following the Yellow Hanky Party he threw for the Ravens in Detroit three seasons ago. Not to mention the flag-fest in Indianapolis in (I believe) 2004, in which Chris McAlister and the Ravens secondary were called for an absurd number of defensive holding penalties.

The Ravens absence from the list might be explained because, according to Sando, several coaches and GMs didn’t even know that such arrangements were in place (whether intentionally or not). Personally, I don’t believe that Ozzie Newsome is one of them, though. This front office knows what is going on around the league.

Anyway, I suppose what I’m getting down to is simple: how do you feel about this? Should teams be able to magically ‘avoid’ certain officiating crews?

To me it appears that even the implication of such a plan is going to impact games. Similar to replay, aren’t officials going to change how they do their jobs if they suspect there could be some sort of trouble? When Mike Shanahan starts to blow a gasket, is that going to stop every official from making the call he needs to make for fear that he may be blacklisted?

And just for fun… let’s go back… we’ve got a whole extra week without serious Ravens talk… who are the league’s best and worst officials?

Alright, so… apologies for the bit of a sabbatical on the part of our little One Winning Drive crew, but we’re back now and ready to get going again!

Let’s take a moment and review what’s gone on since we’ve been, well, gone…

Alright, cool, now that that’s out of the way, let’s get to the meat and potatoes of things: Draft Day 2008 is just over a month away and the Ravens have quite the decision to make. Here’s OWD’s own mini-mock of what might be to come…
Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been two weeks since the Ravens dismissed Brian Billick as Head Coach, an unexpected move that received rave reviews from most fans. But it is fair to say that all has not proceeded swimmingly since then, and while the off-season has hardly even begun, the pressure to settle the issue is mounting.

Perhaps “settle” is a poor choice of words at this point… Read the rest of this entry »