I know, I know… you’ve heard already. This isn’t an “in case you didn’t see” post… everybody saw. The Pats lost. It’s true. The Patriots lost for the first time in 22 regular season games… and to none other than the Miami Dolphins. But there are three things that need to be said in breaking this down.
First, look back at it one more time and there’s no denying it: Matt Cassel is not to blame here. I’m sorry, but he’s not. Does that mean that Tom Brady would have lost, too? No, certainly not. Tom Brady may very well have done what we all expect Tom Brady to do every week. But that does not mean that Matt Cassel blew this game. He didn’t. He was no Pro-Bowler, but he was no punk, either. Cassel was responsible for just one turnover and completed more than 60% of his passes (even if just for 160 yards). The problem on that offense was in front of Cassel.
That’s #2. If you want to blame someone on this offense, blame that offensive line. The same offensive line that gives Tom Brady minutes on end to wander around in a pocket the size of the Bill Belichick’s ego simply fell apart against the Dolphins. The Dolphins managed four sacks, three by Joey Porter alone who outright told the Patriots he was coming after Cassel. And more, that puny offensive line was only able to block enough to get the Patriots 79 yards rushing (60 if you remove Wes Welker’s run). No one would ever call the Patriots at running team. And no one would expect great rushing numbers when a team goes down by 20 points in the first half (the Pats only managed 20 total rushes), but that’s not an excuse. When the passing game isn’t working, and when the offensive line cannot help the quarterback, it’s time to run the ball to establish something. The Pats never got there. They never even got close. This line failed on all fronts.
Third, the game’s biggest failure is the New England defense. A defense that gave up 461 total yards. A defense that allowed Chad Pennington to complete 85% of his passes without recording a single sack. And a defense that allowed Ronnie Brown to score five touchdowns. Go back and watch the film - you can be sure to see it on ESPN 20 times in the next 5 days - the Dolphins did most of their damage running their offense in a gadget scheme: Ronnie Brown at QB (shotgun), Chad Pennington out wide, and Ricky Williams wide or at TE. The Dolphins scored over and over again using this slick formation, and the Patriots looked baffled every time they saw it. Perhaps even worse for the Patriots reputation, more than once Ronnie Brown simply ran a QB-draw from that shotgun position. He took the ball from his center, he looked at the defensive line, and he ran past them. Nothing fancy. Nothing tricky. Just a plain, old run from a funny formation. And the Pats had no answer.
I’ve heard a few analysts and others go off about how the offense is more to blame… sounding like old Ravens critics, “the defense can’t be on the field all game long!” But let’s just squash that outright. Look at time of possession in this game: 32:33 for the Fish to 27:27 for the Pats. Hardly lopsided. In fact, the average Dolphins scoring drive lasted just 4 minutes, and they never held the ball for more than 7 minutes. By comparison, the Ravens held the ball for more than 37 minutes in their victory today against the Browns, including a fourth quarter drive lasting well over 7 minutes. So let’s not say that this defense was just too worn down to have a shot. The Pats couldn’t score, but their defense didn’t help the cause.
Now here’s where we get to predictions - or perhaps forecasts is a better term. Like it or not (and trust me, I don’t like it), the offense is going to take the fall for this loss. Matt Cassel will be the scapegoat. Randy Moss will make sure of it. Bill Belichick will make sure of it. And the fans, coming off a season with a record-setting offense, certainly won’t stand for such failures. And the solution will come this week, perhaps next, in the form of a new starting quarterback. My bet? Jeff Garcia. Recently benched in Tampa Bay, Garcia thinks he should still be the starter. Look at his number from last season and his brief time in Philadelphia, and you might just agree with him. In 21 games in 2006 and 2007, Garcia’s passer rating averaged nearly 100 (95). He clearly has the tools to be a starting quarterback. And in both Philly and Tampa, he was working without the kind of tools that Bill Belichick can offer.
The biggest question is what will Garcia cost? Tampa’s price can’t be too high, but New England should pay up if they want to silence the Cassel Controversey talks early.
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